Bitcoin faces pressure as traders price 78% odds of Fed hike

Key points

• Fed held rates at 3.75%-4% in a 10-2 vote; Cook and Hammack wanted a hike
• CME FedWatch shows 78.4% odds of a quarter-point hike by December
• Bitcoin traded near $81,500 on Wednesday, per Bitcoin Magazine
• PCE inflation data and Big Tech earnings are next catalysts

Bitcoin is facing renewed macro pressure after the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady on Wednesday but struck a hawkish tone, with CME FedWatch data showing traders assign a 78.4% probability of a quarter-point hike by December, according to Cointelegraph.

What the Fed decided

The Federal Open Market Committee voted 10-2 to keep its benchmark rate in a range of 3.75% to 4%. Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack dissented in favor of a quarter-point increase, Cointelegraph reported. Bitcoin Magazine said it was the first time since 1992 that a governor and a regional bank president dissented together on the same side.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh acknowledged that inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target. “It’s our responsibility to get inflation down,” he said, per Cointelegraph. He declined to say whether the central bank would raise rates at its next meeting, scheduled for Dec. 8-9.

Bitcoin Magazine reported that the committee dropped earlier language about when a hike might support a return to 2% inflation, and now describes growth as strong rather than solid.

How markets and Bitcoin reacted

Iggy Ioppe, chief investment officer at tokenization platform Theo, said markets had priced in a hold but not the hawkish tone. CME FedWatch also showed a 67.3% probability of at least one quarter-point increase by March, Cointelegraph reported. Ioppe said Bitcoin must compete with a risk-free rate near 4%.

According to Bitcoin Magazine, bitcoin rose to about $81,700 after the announcement, slipped below $80,500, then recovered toward $81,000. It cited a price of $81,478 at the time of writing on Wednesday. The outlet said the reaction was restrained because most traders expected a hold, and that $80,000 has held as support in recent sessions.

Bitcoin Magazine also reported that spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $110 million in net inflows on Oct. 26 and $176 million on Oct. 27, while noting that some observers flagged large holders selling into strength. It said bitcoin is about a third below its October 2025 record near $126,000.

What analysts are watching next

Lewis Huang, an analyst at Bitget, said Bitcoin’s near-term performance may depend more on Treasury yields, dollar movements and broader risk sentiment, according to Cointelegraph. Analysts are watching Thursday’s personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation report and earnings from large technology companies.

Fabian Dori, chief investment officer at Sygnum Bank, said earnings from the “Mag 7” companies would show whether AI capital spending is turning into revenue, and that broader liquidity and financial conditions will likely shape the path to the December decision.

Voters also go to the polls in the midterm elections on Nov. 3. Bitcoin Magazine reported the crypto industry has spent about $176 million on more than 100 races, led by the super PAC Fairshake.