Arthur Hayes exits Maelstrom crypto positions; $26M in sales tracked

Key points

• Hayes said Maelstrom took profits on ETH, ENA, UNI and other tokens on Oct. 24
• EmberCN estimates about $26M in sales across seven tokens
• ETH was nearly three-quarters of the total, about 8,000 ETH
• Santiment saw a 169,770 ETH net exchange outflow on Oct. 23

Arthur Hayes, chief investment officer of Maelstrom, said on Oct. 24 that the firm has exited its directional crypto positions, taking profits on Ethereum (ETH), Ethena (ENA), Uniswap (UNI) and other tokens. On-chain analyst EmberCN estimated the related sales at about $26 million, according to a CryptoSlate report.

Hayes cited rising macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty as the reason and indicated he would stay on the sidelines until conditions offer a clearer signal. CryptoSlate quoted him as saying, “I think we gotta go down to go up.”

What the on-chain data shows

EmberCN’s estimate, as relayed by CryptoSlate, covers seven tokens. Ether made up nearly three-quarters of the total, with about 8,000 ETH valued near $19 million. The other sales were estimated as follows:

• ENA: about 14 million tokens, roughly $3 million
• UNI: about 323,000 tokens, roughly $2 million
• ETHFI: about 1.89 million tokens, roughly $1 million
• AERO: about 547,000 tokens, roughly $400,000
• PENDLE: about 120,000 tokens, roughly $240,000
• ZAMA: about 3 million tokens, roughly $210,000

The figures are analyst estimates drawn from wallet activity, not numbers confirmed by Hayes or Maelstrom. Other trackers may arrive at different totals depending on which wallets and prices they use. The statement also does not settle whether Maelstrom sold any of its longer-term Bitcoin holdings. In an earlier outlook, CryptoSlate noted, Hayes treated Bitcoin as the firm’s long-term holding and regarded ETH and DeFi tokens as more speculative.

How the exit fits with his earlier outlook

The move is a shift from Hayes’ Sept. 2 outlook, which kept a year-end ETH target of $10,000 and listed targets of $0.50 for ENA and $2 for ETHFI. That view rested on an expectation that the Federal Reserve would act to expand dollar liquidity, according to CryptoSlate.

The Federal Reserve is scheduled to meet Oct. 27-28, a date that falls shortly after the sales were reported and that some market participants may be watching closely. Neither Hayes’ statement, as described by CryptoSlate, nor the on-chain estimates establish a direct link between the sales and the meeting.

Exchange outflows add a separate signal

Separately, blockchain analytics firm Santiment reported on Oct. 23 that roughly 169,770 ETH left exchanges on a net basis in a single day, the largest such outflow in more than four months. Santiment compared the move with a June 5 episode, when about 223,800 ETH left exchanges near a local bottom.

Santiment identified $2,400 as an immediate pivot level for ETH. It said a sustained move above $2,500 would strengthen its case that a bottom is forming, while a drop below roughly $2,330 would weaken it. The firm also cautioned that exchange withdrawals do not necessarily mean new buying, since coins can move to private wallets, custody services or staking.

The two data points point in different directions: a prominent trader reducing exposure to ETH and DeFi tokens while exchange balances fell. Which proves more significant may depend on the Fed’s decision and on whether the withdrawn coins are held or put back on exchanges.

What to watch next

Hayes has not said when Maelstrom might return to directional trading. Market participants are likely to follow further wallet movements tied to the firm, the Fed’s Oct. 28 outcome and whether ETH holds the levels Santiment flagged.